1. US Health costs – are at 17 % of GDP – ie roughly 3 Trillion, have risen 3 fold over 25 years while the corporate tax rate as fallen from 4 % GDP to 2 % GDP. The rise has become unsustainable.
2. Amazon has been underestimated with particular regard to it`s brilliance in executing.
3. 3G s playbook is to make companies more productive, improve innovation and make products more appealing. Berkshire can imagine to do more deals with 3 G. Kraft/Heinz - Unilever deal was approved under the condition that it was going to be friendly and would have involved USD 15 Bio of Berkshires equity.
4. private equity is equal to LBO. It means leveraging transactions to hell – which in times of low interest rates may work for some time. Nowadays with interest rates so low, anything is doable and debt financed deals have become common place and Berkshire is not a good party to call on for new deals. Berkshire prefers equity financed deals.
5. EBITDA is a misleading measure because it pretends that depreciation was not necessary and lets multiples appear to be lower. It`s a misuse of language typical for Wallstreet.
6. Airlines have gone bankrupt so many times, that a lesson was likely learned and that revenues will improve over the coming ten years and the industry will be in a better place. Shareholders are benefitting from extensive share repurchase plans. Revenue passanger miles are gradually improving. Collective suicide has stopped.
7. At Vanguard (holding USD 3 Trillion in Mutual fund investments) Indexed passive investing has outcompeted active investment styles by a wide margin in the period since 1974. In 2016 USD 400 Bio have been moved into Indexed Mutual funds while actively managed funds saw a decline of USD 50 Bio.
ETF`s are very narrow in focus and ETF managers do too much trading and run excessive turnover, speculative activity and market gambling.
8. Berkshire Hathaway`s intrinsic value is probably about 15 % above its present stock market valuation. Buffett thinks Berkshire could do a large transactin to the tune of USD 150 Bio – thereby using USD 100 Bio of it`s cash.
9. 2/20 hedge fund renumeration is ludicrous and is one of the great aberations of our times.